Human beings have an inherent problem of scale. When things get too big, whether buildings or systems, we start to distance ourselves from them. If they get so big that they overwhelm us in their complexity and seriousness we, childlike, close our eyes. Why, we must ask, are we paralyzed in the presence of this enormity of global overpopulation and what can we do to overcome it? To understand the dangers implicit in this behavior and find ways to counter it is one of mankind's greatest tasks if it is to survive the convergence of the massive forces descending upon us. All responsible experts, by which I mean those capable of taking evidence as the basis for judgment, now agree that the big word is "if." One of the problems with even this observation is that the word if is enough to generate childlike irresponsibility. That is, if we even suspect we can't do it, why try.
These thoughts occurred to me while reading an excellent essay by Professor Ken Small. The essay titled Global population reduction: confronting the inevitable can be found at file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Robert/Application%20Data/Mozilla/Firefox/Profiles/ozc2s59x.default/ScrapBook/data/20090205223848/index.html
One approach is sometimes called the salami method, that is slicing up the problem into smaller more "manageable" parts. This approach, while certainly more accommodating of our human limitations, has several risks built into it that must be recognized and addressed. First it requires that the problem be well enough understood so that it is broken into its constituent pieces at relevant, addressable, sections. This in itself is complicated by all the factors that must be considered in this reduction process. Population growth includes the problem of contravening ingrained human values, e.g. the "need" to have children. It has an ethnic value, e.g. if we don't maintain our numbers our culture will perish. It has the problem of redistributing the world's resources and the very idea of ownership.
The next problem is how to orchestrate this salami technique so that the most necessary of these various "slices" are addressed at a time and in a sequence that will get the results we need. As you will note from Small's essay he is looking at the generation, approximately 20 years, as the basic "slice" to orchestrate the needed changes. He anticipates about 200 years of generational change to bring the earth's human population down to a sustainable level. This process allows us to begin asking, "What should my generation do to further this population reduction. This in tern presents us, if all the conditions of thought and understanding I mentioned above are met, to begin productively thinking, planning and acting so that the next generation will have a basis to build on.
So the issue for this generation is to articulate the problem as best we can and find the cut points for "slicing." Identify this generation's slice; that is what we need to accomplish in the next 20 years? Then, plan and promote the process and actions tjat must be undertaken. There will, of course, be a lot of learning from experience as we progress. We will have to use our intelligence to outsmart our human nature. In the future I will try to present some thoughts on how we might proceed in such an endeavourer.
For purposes of illustration let us postulate a global population of 10 billion by 2050. This is actually within the margin of possibility. Taking the upper limit for a sustainable population of 2 billion, which is upper midrange in the estimated earth carrying capacity, we would need to reduce population by 8 billion in 200 years or 10 generations. This would, in crude terms, require a reduction rate of about 800 million per generation. One could expect, however, that as mankind acculturated itself to the necessity of this reduction that it would take place at a faster rate the further along the process went.
But let us target on this generation's 800 million. Understanding the goal is to sufficiently reduce global population with as little violence as possible. What priorities should be set to achieve the necessary reduction?
Immediately it becomes obvious that the least violent method of reducing population is to reduce the birth rate. Thus we need a massive investment in birth control. This immediately runs into an intreched religious resistance found in our culture. We will have to make the consequences of not reducing human population so clear, as Al Gore did with global warming, that this can be overcome. It probably will require limiting family size. China's one child per couple policy, which with a variety of exemptions applies to 36% of the population, has prevented over 250 million births between the program's inception in 1979 and 2000. This is an average of about 166 million per generation. This begins to provide a scale to measure what needs to be done if we are to achieve a global 800 million reduction for the world as a whole in this first generation. It is important to understand why only 36% of the Chinese population was required to participate in the program. For instance one of the major exemptions was for rural families because they needed children for a labor force. Parents who were themselves only children were allowed to have more than one child for family lineage purposes. Thus the Chinese took into account both economic and cultural concerns. China has about 16.5% of the world's population of 6 billion. A global population reduction done on the same scale for the same 20 years would have been 960 million, well over our 800 million 20-year target. This suggests that the Chinese approach could be used as a model to be modified by cultural and other demands, just as China modified their plan for cultural and economic purposes. This further suggests that if one society of 1 billion can achieve these results without major conflict that it may be possible for the world at large to do so. I am well aware of the downside of the Chinese effort, eg. killing female babies by exposure to ensure a male child to carry on the family name. These are cultural factors that need to be improved. However, the consequences of not making these reductions will be far more disastrous for humanity than maintaining the current methods of family inheritance or lineage.
Bob Newhard
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Affluence, Meaning, and Sustainability
This inquiry started out by asking why societies, once they have achieved affluence, almost inevitably decline? Why, in other words, when life becomes more or less satisfying for a large group of people, does it not continue indefinitely? One answer, of course, is that their lifestyle may exhaust the resources required to sustain it. However affluent societies such as Rome or Egypt or colonial England did not fail from a want of resources. There appears to be something in human nature that cannot tolerate continued affluence. If this is the case, is there something in us that will not abide the continuity of an ample or adequate sustainable society? We have, I believe, tacitly assumed that once a sustainable society is attained it will persist for long periods. My question is whether human nature is consistent with this expectation. If not, how will human nature have to be modified and can that modification be reasonably expected within the time frame it has to take place?
Near the heart of this question is whether human beings are psychologically equipped to live in a sustainable society over the long haul. There is, I think, a proclivity for violence in human nature that is inimical to a persistently sustainable society. We see this sublimated in so many of the sports we are attracted to.
I will use war as a paradigm in examining this question because war is a most grievous example of sustainability destruction. In his book War is a Force That Gives Our Life Meaning Chris Hedges examines why, despite all we know of the horrors of war, do we continue to engage in them? He notes General George S. Patton famously said, "Compared to war all other forms of human endeavor shrink to insignificance. God, I do love it so!" Hedges is concerned in this book to demonstrate the vast range of this sentiment. Thus that vaunted human goal 'meaning in life' can itself be an enemy of mankind. Is it any wonder that we abandon peace, presumably a condition of sustainability, so readily and so frequently?
There is a literature on the psychology of sustainability to be found on the web. An article I found to be particularly useful is Psychology of Sustainability Embodying Cyclic Environmental Processes. It may be found at http://www.laetusinpraesens.org/docs/psychsus.php.
From a sustainability point of view, war has a major impact. Aside from all its other horrors, it consumes monumental amounts of the earth's resources, it destroys vast stretches of the environment, it destroys the ability of humans to cooperate in maintaining the only environment they have. Thus, it is not a trivial ecological matter. If we are to have a sustainable human environment we must find a way to avoid war.
How can we expect a society focused on sustainability to deal with war? One scenario with a good deal of historical precedent is that the restrictions that sustainability may place on society, e.g. greatly reduced consumption, continuously calculated relationships to the natural environment, accompanied by reduced choices, will induce an increasing sense of frustration as masses of humans must live at a consumption level much lower than their predecessors. The Japanese entered World War II not to feed a starving population, but to acquire the resources to become a world power. The United States did not attack Iraq to maintain a sustainable society, but to establish a new imperialism.
While I chose war as a paradigm for discussing sustainability's problem with human nature, there are others, e.g. our untrammeled desire for novelty. We have large portions of our economy built on this desire (lust?). How much of our sense of identity is built on being "better" than others, e.g. keeping up with the Joneses, the latest model car, etc. Again, large portions of our economy are built on this desire.
While I see no resolution to this conflict between sustainability and human nature especially within the time frame it must be achieved, there is, perhaps, some modicum of hope in the observation found in the above-noted article, i.e. "re-defining "sanity" as if the whole world mattered." (My italics) With a sustained, pervasive, focus on the planet as a whole, thus mitigating the differences among us, we may establish our identity as citizens of the earth grateful for our home in the universe and loath to fighting over it. After all, homeland, motherland and fatherland have been powerful sources of allegiance for humans. Why not earthland?
Bob Newhard
Near the heart of this question is whether human beings are psychologically equipped to live in a sustainable society over the long haul. There is, I think, a proclivity for violence in human nature that is inimical to a persistently sustainable society. We see this sublimated in so many of the sports we are attracted to.
I will use war as a paradigm in examining this question because war is a most grievous example of sustainability destruction. In his book War is a Force That Gives Our Life Meaning Chris Hedges examines why, despite all we know of the horrors of war, do we continue to engage in them? He notes General George S. Patton famously said, "Compared to war all other forms of human endeavor shrink to insignificance. God, I do love it so!" Hedges is concerned in this book to demonstrate the vast range of this sentiment. Thus that vaunted human goal 'meaning in life' can itself be an enemy of mankind. Is it any wonder that we abandon peace, presumably a condition of sustainability, so readily and so frequently?
There is a literature on the psychology of sustainability to be found on the web. An article I found to be particularly useful is Psychology of Sustainability Embodying Cyclic Environmental Processes. It may be found at http://www.laetusinpraesens.org/docs/psychsus.php.
From a sustainability point of view, war has a major impact. Aside from all its other horrors, it consumes monumental amounts of the earth's resources, it destroys vast stretches of the environment, it destroys the ability of humans to cooperate in maintaining the only environment they have. Thus, it is not a trivial ecological matter. If we are to have a sustainable human environment we must find a way to avoid war.
How can we expect a society focused on sustainability to deal with war? One scenario with a good deal of historical precedent is that the restrictions that sustainability may place on society, e.g. greatly reduced consumption, continuously calculated relationships to the natural environment, accompanied by reduced choices, will induce an increasing sense of frustration as masses of humans must live at a consumption level much lower than their predecessors. The Japanese entered World War II not to feed a starving population, but to acquire the resources to become a world power. The United States did not attack Iraq to maintain a sustainable society, but to establish a new imperialism.
While I chose war as a paradigm for discussing sustainability's problem with human nature, there are others, e.g. our untrammeled desire for novelty. We have large portions of our economy built on this desire (lust?). How much of our sense of identity is built on being "better" than others, e.g. keeping up with the Joneses, the latest model car, etc. Again, large portions of our economy are built on this desire.
While I see no resolution to this conflict between sustainability and human nature especially within the time frame it must be achieved, there is, perhaps, some modicum of hope in the observation found in the above-noted article, i.e. "re-defining "sanity" as if the whole world mattered." (My italics) With a sustained, pervasive, focus on the planet as a whole, thus mitigating the differences among us, we may establish our identity as citizens of the earth grateful for our home in the universe and loath to fighting over it. After all, homeland, motherland and fatherland have been powerful sources of allegiance for humans. Why not earthland?
Bob Newhard
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Debt: The Built In Economic Plague
Debt is an ancient human practice in which the future is used to meet the needs or desires of the present. As such there has always been a risk associated with it because the fugue is unknown and hence counting on it is less than certain. When the debt risk is enhanced by interest an additional amount is put at risk. There was a time when interest on a debt was viewed as immoral under the aegis of the Catholic Church. We all remember the implied condemnation of Shakespeare's Shylock wanting to collect his interest, which in this case was a pound of the debtor's flesh. However, with the rise of commerce following the Dark Ages debt began to play a lager role in everything from mercantile exchange to financing governments and their wars. Notably many commercial efforts of this early period were joint partnership efforts in which the partners put their own money at risk to accomplish the enterprise. To a certain extent they minimized the risk by way of state sanctioned incorporation. Notably debt was still looked upon as a serious risk. The saying "Someday my ship will come in." was a colloquial expression for the merchant's ship financing venture. In 19th and early 20th century populism, debt in the form imposed by the high shipping rates of the railroad barons and the tight money supply imposed by requiring no more currency than could be supported by the nation's accumulated gold was their major political concern. Another evidence of debt's poor reputation was the debtor's prison. As late as the 1830's American's could be imprisoned for unpaid debts. This is still possible for some kinds of specified debts, e.g. unpaid child support.
Debt was also used as a method of social control. The indentured servant in Colonial America was paying off the debt incurred by the cost of his passage from England to The Colonies plus any costs the creditor chose to impose. The share cropper was continually in debt to the land owner in the South because the owner's share was always enough to keep the share cropper on the land. The coal mine owners kept coal minors continually in debt in company-owned towns where the owner set rent cost and the cost of necessities at the company store. Some of you may remember Tennessee Ernie Ford's coal mining song that had the line "I owe my soul to the company store.'" In consequence the ordinary people of those times looked upon debt as a source of great deprivation of freedom and the necessities of life.
Despite this long history of debt condemnation, we now have an economy in which debt is a commodity and, as some argue, creates more money than the federal treasury. It has thus been deemed not only a good, but a necessary good.
How did this happen?
I believe the underlying cause is that the technology of production became so efficient followig the Industrial Revolution that factories began to produce more than society could consume. Technology drove production so much faster than consumption that the purchasing ability required for human consumption could not keep up. Debt, along with all kinds of desire stimulants e.g. fashion, two toned cars, keeping up with the Joneses, be came a major way to keep the capitalist economy functioning, From this we got the "growth is good" mantra from business schools, the local chamber of commerce and the media. In using debt for this purpose we pushed actual consumption further and further into the future and, thus, further and further into the unknown. This is what we now call burdening our children.
Debt becomes a way of life
Being a child of the Great Depression I was not well disposed toward incurring debt. For sometime I had been depositing $300 whenever I needed to rent a car. The time came, however, that the car rental agencies would no longer take a deposit. They would only take a credit card. Of necessity, I reluctantly obtained a credit card. This was one of those points where the economy, I believe initially for efficiency's sake, required that people go in debt in order to function in everyday life. However the credit card made debt so easy to acquire on a day to day basis that it rapidly grew in scope to the point where credit became a marketing tool. People began living with continuous debt, sometimes paying only enough interest to retain the ability to continue to go in debt. Many people became addicted to debt. A whole culture of "shop 'till you drop" grew up around this life of continual debt.
The commodification of debt
Debt became such an ingrained element of everyday life that like "pork bellies" it became a commodity to be bought and sold. When we bought our house in 1997 we needed a bridge mortgage until our house in Torrance was sold. I was aware of the practice of selling mortgages and reached an agreement with our lender that they would not sell our mortgage until a date specific within which I believed our house would sell. I was right, but when I went to pay off the mortgage substantially before the date agreed upon I was told that the mortgage had already been sold. While we were able to have this error corrected, I was impressed by the rapidity which mortgagers put these mortgages on the market. There was obviously a thriving market for them.
Not only was debt commodified, it was atomized, repackaged and sold as securities. Where did this leave the mortgagee? How many different people owned the mortgage?
There is a feudal quality to all of this. In the Middle Ages whole populations were transferred from one monarch to another, for example, as part of a marriage agreement. Here thousands, perhaps millions, of debts were transferred from one owner to other owners with no notification of the mortgagee. Thus we have let ourselves become pawns of the corporate wealthy.
Debt as the creator of money in our economy.
Leaving aside all those other devices of deception, e.g. derivatives and default swaps, which this novice certainly doesn't understand, we come to an interesting characteristic of the banking system. It is a legally sanctioned Ponzi scheme. I first stumbled on this in an article by Ellen Brown who wrote the book Web of Debt.
In an article titled The Wall Street Ponzi Scheme Called Fractional Reserve Banking: Borrowing from Peter to Pay Paul, which may be found at http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11600. Brown describes how banks, which need keep only 10% of their customer deposits in the bank, can use the other 90% to loan. This means that despite the legally assured option to demand the return of our deposited funds at any time, they, in fact, may not be there. If slightly over 10% of depositors demand their money back at a given time they will be denied. This is the fundamental feature of a Ponzi scheme. To quote from the above referenced article by Brown," Most people are not involved in illegal Ponzi schemes, but we do keep our money in accounts that are tallied on computer screens rather than in stacks of coins or paper bills. How do we know that when we demand our money from our bank or broker that the funds will be there? The fact that banks are subject to “runs” (recall Northern Rock, Indymac and Washington Mutual) suggests that all may not be as it seems on our online screens. Banks themselves are involved in a sort of Ponzi scheme, one that has been perpetuated for hundreds of years. What distinguishes the legal scheme known as “fractional reserve” lending from the illegal schemes of Bernie Madoff and his ilk is that the bankers’ scheme is protected by government charter and backstopped with government funds. At last count, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury had committed $8.5 trillion to bailing out the banks from their follies.1 By comparison, M2, the largest measure of the money supply now reported by the Federal Reserve, was just under $8 trillion in December 2008.2 The sheer size of the bailout efforts indicates that the banking scheme has reached its mathematical limits and needs to be superseded by something more sustainable."
But how to create the sustainable money supply that would avoid the democracy-destroying impact and over consumption of the growth-driven current system? Ellen Brown's bottom line recommendation is that only government should create money, not the free market of banks and speculation. Others have other suggestions on how to achieve this necessary goal. Thomas H. Greco has a web site titled Reinventing Money http://www.reinventingmoney.com/, which is devoted to this issue. I also found Greco's article The Trouble With Money very interesting. It can be found at http://www.yesmagazine.org/article.asp?ID=883.
In sum, we have created a major industry out of debt. What could not have happened in an age of barter, or perhaps of hard currency has, aided by our technology, created a complex, intricately concatenated, fairyland for desire out of the future. This technology-based complexity reminded me of a warning I read decades ago, namely, that as society becomes more knowledge-dependent those who know will dominate. Our current financial crisis was generated by a minuscule portion of the world's population. Something this powerful was brought to pass with no public awareness. How to bridge the gap between knowledge and democracy is one of the great issues humanity faces and one that seldom finds any social or political focus.
Bob Newhard
Debt was also used as a method of social control. The indentured servant in Colonial America was paying off the debt incurred by the cost of his passage from England to The Colonies plus any costs the creditor chose to impose. The share cropper was continually in debt to the land owner in the South because the owner's share was always enough to keep the share cropper on the land. The coal mine owners kept coal minors continually in debt in company-owned towns where the owner set rent cost and the cost of necessities at the company store. Some of you may remember Tennessee Ernie Ford's coal mining song that had the line "I owe my soul to the company store.'" In consequence the ordinary people of those times looked upon debt as a source of great deprivation of freedom and the necessities of life.
Despite this long history of debt condemnation, we now have an economy in which debt is a commodity and, as some argue, creates more money than the federal treasury. It has thus been deemed not only a good, but a necessary good.
How did this happen?
I believe the underlying cause is that the technology of production became so efficient followig the Industrial Revolution that factories began to produce more than society could consume. Technology drove production so much faster than consumption that the purchasing ability required for human consumption could not keep up. Debt, along with all kinds of desire stimulants e.g. fashion, two toned cars, keeping up with the Joneses, be came a major way to keep the capitalist economy functioning, From this we got the "growth is good" mantra from business schools, the local chamber of commerce and the media. In using debt for this purpose we pushed actual consumption further and further into the future and, thus, further and further into the unknown. This is what we now call burdening our children.
Debt becomes a way of life
Being a child of the Great Depression I was not well disposed toward incurring debt. For sometime I had been depositing $300 whenever I needed to rent a car. The time came, however, that the car rental agencies would no longer take a deposit. They would only take a credit card. Of necessity, I reluctantly obtained a credit card. This was one of those points where the economy, I believe initially for efficiency's sake, required that people go in debt in order to function in everyday life. However the credit card made debt so easy to acquire on a day to day basis that it rapidly grew in scope to the point where credit became a marketing tool. People began living with continuous debt, sometimes paying only enough interest to retain the ability to continue to go in debt. Many people became addicted to debt. A whole culture of "shop 'till you drop" grew up around this life of continual debt.
The commodification of debt
Debt became such an ingrained element of everyday life that like "pork bellies" it became a commodity to be bought and sold. When we bought our house in 1997 we needed a bridge mortgage until our house in Torrance was sold. I was aware of the practice of selling mortgages and reached an agreement with our lender that they would not sell our mortgage until a date specific within which I believed our house would sell. I was right, but when I went to pay off the mortgage substantially before the date agreed upon I was told that the mortgage had already been sold. While we were able to have this error corrected, I was impressed by the rapidity which mortgagers put these mortgages on the market. There was obviously a thriving market for them.
Not only was debt commodified, it was atomized, repackaged and sold as securities. Where did this leave the mortgagee? How many different people owned the mortgage?
There is a feudal quality to all of this. In the Middle Ages whole populations were transferred from one monarch to another, for example, as part of a marriage agreement. Here thousands, perhaps millions, of debts were transferred from one owner to other owners with no notification of the mortgagee. Thus we have let ourselves become pawns of the corporate wealthy.
Debt as the creator of money in our economy.
Leaving aside all those other devices of deception, e.g. derivatives and default swaps, which this novice certainly doesn't understand, we come to an interesting characteristic of the banking system. It is a legally sanctioned Ponzi scheme. I first stumbled on this in an article by Ellen Brown who wrote the book Web of Debt.
In an article titled The Wall Street Ponzi Scheme Called Fractional Reserve Banking: Borrowing from Peter to Pay Paul, which may be found at http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11600. Brown describes how banks, which need keep only 10% of their customer deposits in the bank, can use the other 90% to loan. This means that despite the legally assured option to demand the return of our deposited funds at any time, they, in fact, may not be there. If slightly over 10% of depositors demand their money back at a given time they will be denied. This is the fundamental feature of a Ponzi scheme. To quote from the above referenced article by Brown," Most people are not involved in illegal Ponzi schemes, but we do keep our money in accounts that are tallied on computer screens rather than in stacks of coins or paper bills. How do we know that when we demand our money from our bank or broker that the funds will be there? The fact that banks are subject to “runs” (recall Northern Rock, Indymac and Washington Mutual) suggests that all may not be as it seems on our online screens. Banks themselves are involved in a sort of Ponzi scheme, one that has been perpetuated for hundreds of years. What distinguishes the legal scheme known as “fractional reserve” lending from the illegal schemes of Bernie Madoff and his ilk is that the bankers’ scheme is protected by government charter and backstopped with government funds. At last count, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury had committed $8.5 trillion to bailing out the banks from their follies.1 By comparison, M2, the largest measure of the money supply now reported by the Federal Reserve, was just under $8 trillion in December 2008.2 The sheer size of the bailout efforts indicates that the banking scheme has reached its mathematical limits and needs to be superseded by something more sustainable."
But how to create the sustainable money supply that would avoid the democracy-destroying impact and over consumption of the growth-driven current system? Ellen Brown's bottom line recommendation is that only government should create money, not the free market of banks and speculation. Others have other suggestions on how to achieve this necessary goal. Thomas H. Greco has a web site titled Reinventing Money http://www.reinventingmoney.com/, which is devoted to this issue. I also found Greco's article The Trouble With Money very interesting. It can be found at http://www.yesmagazine.org/article.asp?ID=883.
In sum, we have created a major industry out of debt. What could not have happened in an age of barter, or perhaps of hard currency has, aided by our technology, created a complex, intricately concatenated, fairyland for desire out of the future. This technology-based complexity reminded me of a warning I read decades ago, namely, that as society becomes more knowledge-dependent those who know will dominate. Our current financial crisis was generated by a minuscule portion of the world's population. Something this powerful was brought to pass with no public awareness. How to bridge the gap between knowledge and democracy is one of the great issues humanity faces and one that seldom finds any social or political focus.
Bob Newhard
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Politics as Human Focused and Reality Focused
When we humans "do" politics we focus on other humans rather than extra-human considerations. I suggest that we do so at our own peril. Politics as we now do it can be called inter-politics, that is between humans in the context of their societies. This leads us to suppose that the important issues lie between human beings rather than between human beings and the context in which their species exists.
Barack Obama, despite strong campaign appeals to progressives to accept his "vision", has created a cabinet composed mainly of Clintonite retreads. Despite all the hype, he has time and again rejected the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which was the wing that gave him so much support during the election. I ask why this profound shift after being elected?
In what follows I may be giving Obama the benefit of the doubt.
Let us assume that what we have witnessed, including giving the prominence of the inaugural prayer to Rick Warren, is Obama's effort to "bridge" the gap between left and right, that is between two human groups. Notably, Bill Clinton tried this with his Democratic Leadership Council, which pandered to the Religious Right and to corporate domination of the economy. It did this with what we now know as disastrous consequences. It is no consolation to see Obama go to the same people to facilitate his "bridging" act. In both these cases I suggest we are looking at people-driven politics rather than reality-driven. Clinton and Obama have looked to the political middle for what is needed.
Reality does not necessarily lie at the middle. The real world requires large scale addressing of issues mankind has never had to face before, e.g. global warming, massive over population and critical environmental degradation. It is, in my estimation, the primary job of the politician to bring these kinds of issues to center stage so that they can be addressed in the terms they require while there is still time to do so democratically. Continuing neglect will necessitate dictatorship as in China's mandated family size with its horrific impact on female babies. It should be noted that the Republicans have not sought to build bridges, rather they have reveled in playing hardball, including shutting down the federal government under Newt Gingrich and creating an imperial presidency under G. W. Bush. They have thereby moved the "center' further and further to the right to the point that we face incipient fascism. This method of doing politics references only the political power of groups of people and focuses on the ways to manipulate people rather than on the problems the people face. I suggest this is a fruitless way to go about politics in the desperate times we face. Among other things it is too easily controlled by ideologies and people's perfidies and bigotries.
The politics of reality, on the other hand, can bring people together based upon the common threats they face. This is most notable in wartime, when desperate circumstances override ideological differences.
The progressive mission should be a fundamentally reality-driven politics presenting the real world as humanity faces it and articulating clearly and forcefully the consequences for humanity if it disregards the necessary.
In a politics of reality human population would rise to a major focus of political concern. One may ask how this issue can be made politically viable when major religions oppose methods for dealing with it. The politics of this reality require an Al Gore of population growth to make clear what the consequences for humanity will inevitably be. For example, as Gore showed the before and after of glacier melt, we need to show the before and after of population growth, the massive suburban sprawl since the end of World War II , a major source of global warming, the food riots in India and Africa and the massive congestion of our cities. It must make clear that advocates of population growth are enemies of mankind.
Another reality that needs to be faced is the fact that the job will be decreasingly available as a means of distributing the gross annual product. As automation, computerization and robotization increasingly set in, jobs will increasingly disappear. We are seeing some of these consequences in a United Sates economy built on finance, not manufacturing and in social disruptions like the youth rioting in Athens specifically because there are no jobs. What, if anything, will replace the job as a means for distributing the wealth generated by society's productivity? This is not to mention the job's psychological and social function of establishing personal significance, an even more profound victim of automation. My father was proud of the fact that he never went on the "dole" during the Great Depression although he sometimes made less than WPA paid. Until society creates the moral equivalent of the job, increasing numbers of citizens will be psychologically and socially on the dole.
In brief, the issue of Right and Left should be replaced by the issue of Fantasy, either religious or economic, and the Real as our planet presents it to us.
Bob Newhard
Barack Obama, despite strong campaign appeals to progressives to accept his "vision", has created a cabinet composed mainly of Clintonite retreads. Despite all the hype, he has time and again rejected the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which was the wing that gave him so much support during the election. I ask why this profound shift after being elected?
In what follows I may be giving Obama the benefit of the doubt.
Let us assume that what we have witnessed, including giving the prominence of the inaugural prayer to Rick Warren, is Obama's effort to "bridge" the gap between left and right, that is between two human groups. Notably, Bill Clinton tried this with his Democratic Leadership Council, which pandered to the Religious Right and to corporate domination of the economy. It did this with what we now know as disastrous consequences. It is no consolation to see Obama go to the same people to facilitate his "bridging" act. In both these cases I suggest we are looking at people-driven politics rather than reality-driven. Clinton and Obama have looked to the political middle for what is needed.
Reality does not necessarily lie at the middle. The real world requires large scale addressing of issues mankind has never had to face before, e.g. global warming, massive over population and critical environmental degradation. It is, in my estimation, the primary job of the politician to bring these kinds of issues to center stage so that they can be addressed in the terms they require while there is still time to do so democratically. Continuing neglect will necessitate dictatorship as in China's mandated family size with its horrific impact on female babies. It should be noted that the Republicans have not sought to build bridges, rather they have reveled in playing hardball, including shutting down the federal government under Newt Gingrich and creating an imperial presidency under G. W. Bush. They have thereby moved the "center' further and further to the right to the point that we face incipient fascism. This method of doing politics references only the political power of groups of people and focuses on the ways to manipulate people rather than on the problems the people face. I suggest this is a fruitless way to go about politics in the desperate times we face. Among other things it is too easily controlled by ideologies and people's perfidies and bigotries.
The politics of reality, on the other hand, can bring people together based upon the common threats they face. This is most notable in wartime, when desperate circumstances override ideological differences.
The progressive mission should be a fundamentally reality-driven politics presenting the real world as humanity faces it and articulating clearly and forcefully the consequences for humanity if it disregards the necessary.
In a politics of reality human population would rise to a major focus of political concern. One may ask how this issue can be made politically viable when major religions oppose methods for dealing with it. The politics of this reality require an Al Gore of population growth to make clear what the consequences for humanity will inevitably be. For example, as Gore showed the before and after of glacier melt, we need to show the before and after of population growth, the massive suburban sprawl since the end of World War II , a major source of global warming, the food riots in India and Africa and the massive congestion of our cities. It must make clear that advocates of population growth are enemies of mankind.
Another reality that needs to be faced is the fact that the job will be decreasingly available as a means of distributing the gross annual product. As automation, computerization and robotization increasingly set in, jobs will increasingly disappear. We are seeing some of these consequences in a United Sates economy built on finance, not manufacturing and in social disruptions like the youth rioting in Athens specifically because there are no jobs. What, if anything, will replace the job as a means for distributing the wealth generated by society's productivity? This is not to mention the job's psychological and social function of establishing personal significance, an even more profound victim of automation. My father was proud of the fact that he never went on the "dole" during the Great Depression although he sometimes made less than WPA paid. Until society creates the moral equivalent of the job, increasing numbers of citizens will be psychologically and socially on the dole.
In brief, the issue of Right and Left should be replaced by the issue of Fantasy, either religious or economic, and the Real as our planet presents it to us.
Bob Newhard
Saturday, December 13, 2008
An Age of Ideologues
When Allan Greenspan confessed to Congress that he knew that the mortgage crisis was immanent, but said nothing, he did so because he believed the market would correct itself without massive government interference. He said acting on this belief had worked for forty years and he was very surprised when it did not do so this time. I was dumbstruck by this admission. Capitalism has been subject to the boom and bust cycle since its inception. As long ago as the 1830s the economist Henry George was wrestling with the problem of how to mitigate this process to minimize the suffering that went with it. The Great Depression, a mere 70 plus years ago, is an obvious warning, especially when so much of the regulatory apparatus designed to protect society from a repeat had been dismantled by "free market" ideologues from Ronald Reagan on. All this was known to Greenspan, but he could not believe that the free market would not correct itself. This is the mark of an ideologue, in this case an Ayn Rand-believing, libertarian ideologue. The largest economy the world has ever seen was placed in the hands of an ideologue.
It is common to believe that the 19th or 20th centuries were the period that saw the rise of ideology to prominence. Socialism, communism and capitalism, each of whose adherents refuse to call it an ideology, a term of denigration reserved for the other two isms, were predominant. I want, however, to use a broader conception of ideology to include systems of belief devoid of evidence, in politics and religion as well. I believe we live in an age of ideology because of this age's extreme multidimensional complexity. In such an environment people seek simplicity in all-encompassing explanations. Living within the scope of knowledge is not enough to assuage the fear of the unknown, which is what extreme complexity amounts to.
As population increase and environmental degradation reduce mankind's survival options, it will become increasingly important that knowledge, with its concomitant tentativeness, increasingly replace ideology. The fundamental question here is whether human beings, who have for millennia relied upon one form or another of ideology to guide them through the unknown, can be brought to rely on knowledge as the guide into the unknown. Ideology's main attraction has been the emotional satisfaction it provides. Knowledge can offer no such all-encompassing assurance.
An alternative to ideology now in increasing vogue is "pragmatism." When Barack Obama began his campaign he focused on "change." He talked in terms of his "vision." Since winning the election he is talking increasingly of "pragmatism". He says we must see what works and if it doesn’t try something else. This is not knowledge at work: It is trial and error on a massive scale. What is needed is a broad assessment, based upon what we know, in order to give some cumulative and continuing benefit. We know from the history of the Great Depression that the way to get the economy going again is to feed money in from the bottom, i.e. through jobs. We know that the economy of a large society needs, to a certain extent, to be planned and we know that the capitalist market is exceptionally vulnerable to human greed, i.e. over-speculation. We also know that the world's population is going to have to do with less. This is the kind of knowledge that has to be brought to bear on our current fiscal crisis, not simply trial and error pragmatism or economic ideology.
Bob Newhard
It is common to believe that the 19th or 20th centuries were the period that saw the rise of ideology to prominence. Socialism, communism and capitalism, each of whose adherents refuse to call it an ideology, a term of denigration reserved for the other two isms, were predominant. I want, however, to use a broader conception of ideology to include systems of belief devoid of evidence, in politics and religion as well. I believe we live in an age of ideology because of this age's extreme multidimensional complexity. In such an environment people seek simplicity in all-encompassing explanations. Living within the scope of knowledge is not enough to assuage the fear of the unknown, which is what extreme complexity amounts to.
As population increase and environmental degradation reduce mankind's survival options, it will become increasingly important that knowledge, with its concomitant tentativeness, increasingly replace ideology. The fundamental question here is whether human beings, who have for millennia relied upon one form or another of ideology to guide them through the unknown, can be brought to rely on knowledge as the guide into the unknown. Ideology's main attraction has been the emotional satisfaction it provides. Knowledge can offer no such all-encompassing assurance.
An alternative to ideology now in increasing vogue is "pragmatism." When Barack Obama began his campaign he focused on "change." He talked in terms of his "vision." Since winning the election he is talking increasingly of "pragmatism". He says we must see what works and if it doesn’t try something else. This is not knowledge at work: It is trial and error on a massive scale. What is needed is a broad assessment, based upon what we know, in order to give some cumulative and continuing benefit. We know from the history of the Great Depression that the way to get the economy going again is to feed money in from the bottom, i.e. through jobs. We know that the economy of a large society needs, to a certain extent, to be planned and we know that the capitalist market is exceptionally vulnerable to human greed, i.e. over-speculation. We also know that the world's population is going to have to do with less. This is the kind of knowledge that has to be brought to bear on our current fiscal crisis, not simply trial and error pragmatism or economic ideology.
Bob Newhard
Sunday, November 30, 2008
A Passion for Ignorance
When the cultural history of the period following World War II is written, I suspect one of the most interesting (baffling) questions will be, "Why did our country, in the midst of the unprecedentedly successful application of science, e.g. man on the moon, discovery of DNA, etc. undertake such a massive, deliberate, dumbing down of its culture in which more people knew less than in the preceding generation?
I believe there were a number of causes, e.g. the substitution of the image for print as in television, affluence itself, but I want to dwell on a primary source: religion.
To begin, why is it that "people of faith" is an honorable, respect-laden, descriptor? Why do we not hear "people of reason" as such? Faith is a form of ignorance. The fundamental necessity of faith occurs when we must act, but we have less than adequate evidence to do so. It should be noted that even then we would prefer evidence or knowledge, but the exigencies of life require action in its absence. However, as is so often the case, we humans transform necessity into desire. Because faith has sometimes seen us through some of life's exigencies it must have some efficaciousness. As I mentioned in an earlier post we abstract from a specific event or events to a general proposition. In consequence believing has become, in our time, more important than thinking.
At a time when society must think its way out of a complex multifaceted threat of global disasters, violence and indeed the continued existence of our species, we have the most pronounced calls to religious faith. Indeed, knowledge itself is massively opposed by people and institutions of faith. Evolution is not only denied, but replaced by religious dogma. Population reduction is vigorously opposed despite the evidence that its growth is a major cause of violence. Faith has become a threat to our continued existence.
In our society it is considered bad form to criticize religion. Why? Let me suggest at least one reason: the Constitution. The Constitution's first amendment, in addressing the relationship between government and religion, elevated religion to the highest prominence. I sometimes wonder what religion's place in our culture would be if the first amendment had read, Congress shall make no law abridging the citizen's freedom of conscience, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof. By using religion, an organized body of great power, it incorporated a force that could and does oppose or manipulate the state for its own benefit. Had this right been framed in terms of individual conscience it would not have such political power. In any event religion has become a prominent political player and yet would hold itself above criticism.
As a result religion now has corporate-like power to influence our government. It is as adept as corporations at getting public funds for its own purposes. It pressures our public institutions, e.g. schools, to become vehicles for its propaganda. In so doing it introduces a dumbing down process into public education. I have witnessed courses in religion being introduced into a public school district on the premise that students could not understand cultural clichés derived from religion unless the religion was taught. There would, of course, be no proselytizing.
Because religion does not have to take the real world seriously as does science, e.g. there are no empirical tests, it can make outlandish claims, do anything to appeal to human emotions and still be followed by the thoughtless. Hence we have the barbarities of Mumbai, the spraying of battery acid on Muslim girls who dare try to get an education or the promotion of maximum birth rates on a vastly over populated planet. Even the most benign of religions has an element of irrationality to it, which makes it difficult for its adherents to condemn the barbarities of fundamentalist adherents on doctrinal grounds.
Religion has the temerity in most cultures to define and become the guardian of morality. With the Age of Reason an effort to divorce religion and morality began. So far this effort has not been a stunning success. It is even a philosophical maxim of secular Western philosophy that you cannot derive a moral proposition from a factual one. This has led to an unnecessary cultural bifurcation in Western culture. Immanuel Kant, in my estimation, provided a clue to how we might reduce this cultural chasm. As an instance, he argued that lying was not wrong because some religion or its deity said it was. It was wrong because if everybody lied society could not function. This is a factual, empirical, justification for not lying. Suppose we tested every so-called moral proposition in this manner. Those that had a deleterious effect on the functioning of human societies would be regarded as immoral those that did not were matters of personal preference. While some problems would obviously remain, e.g. how does one separate morality from prudence (To which I would respond that cultural prudence may lie at the evolutionary root of morality.) These problems would have far less adverse impact on human beings and their societies.
Considerations of this sort may have to be pursued if we are to minimize the enormities that passionate ignorance has and will increasingly inflict on society. It must become a maxim of society that faith is not knowledge and belief is not reason if we are ever to live in concert with the planet, the two edged sword that science has given us and the common plight we all share.
Bob Newhard
I believe there were a number of causes, e.g. the substitution of the image for print as in television, affluence itself, but I want to dwell on a primary source: religion.
To begin, why is it that "people of faith" is an honorable, respect-laden, descriptor? Why do we not hear "people of reason" as such? Faith is a form of ignorance. The fundamental necessity of faith occurs when we must act, but we have less than adequate evidence to do so. It should be noted that even then we would prefer evidence or knowledge, but the exigencies of life require action in its absence. However, as is so often the case, we humans transform necessity into desire. Because faith has sometimes seen us through some of life's exigencies it must have some efficaciousness. As I mentioned in an earlier post we abstract from a specific event or events to a general proposition. In consequence believing has become, in our time, more important than thinking.
At a time when society must think its way out of a complex multifaceted threat of global disasters, violence and indeed the continued existence of our species, we have the most pronounced calls to religious faith. Indeed, knowledge itself is massively opposed by people and institutions of faith. Evolution is not only denied, but replaced by religious dogma. Population reduction is vigorously opposed despite the evidence that its growth is a major cause of violence. Faith has become a threat to our continued existence.
In our society it is considered bad form to criticize religion. Why? Let me suggest at least one reason: the Constitution. The Constitution's first amendment, in addressing the relationship between government and religion, elevated religion to the highest prominence. I sometimes wonder what religion's place in our culture would be if the first amendment had read, Congress shall make no law abridging the citizen's freedom of conscience, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof. By using religion, an organized body of great power, it incorporated a force that could and does oppose or manipulate the state for its own benefit. Had this right been framed in terms of individual conscience it would not have such political power. In any event religion has become a prominent political player and yet would hold itself above criticism.
As a result religion now has corporate-like power to influence our government. It is as adept as corporations at getting public funds for its own purposes. It pressures our public institutions, e.g. schools, to become vehicles for its propaganda. In so doing it introduces a dumbing down process into public education. I have witnessed courses in religion being introduced into a public school district on the premise that students could not understand cultural clichés derived from religion unless the religion was taught. There would, of course, be no proselytizing.
Because religion does not have to take the real world seriously as does science, e.g. there are no empirical tests, it can make outlandish claims, do anything to appeal to human emotions and still be followed by the thoughtless. Hence we have the barbarities of Mumbai, the spraying of battery acid on Muslim girls who dare try to get an education or the promotion of maximum birth rates on a vastly over populated planet. Even the most benign of religions has an element of irrationality to it, which makes it difficult for its adherents to condemn the barbarities of fundamentalist adherents on doctrinal grounds.
Religion has the temerity in most cultures to define and become the guardian of morality. With the Age of Reason an effort to divorce religion and morality began. So far this effort has not been a stunning success. It is even a philosophical maxim of secular Western philosophy that you cannot derive a moral proposition from a factual one. This has led to an unnecessary cultural bifurcation in Western culture. Immanuel Kant, in my estimation, provided a clue to how we might reduce this cultural chasm. As an instance, he argued that lying was not wrong because some religion or its deity said it was. It was wrong because if everybody lied society could not function. This is a factual, empirical, justification for not lying. Suppose we tested every so-called moral proposition in this manner. Those that had a deleterious effect on the functioning of human societies would be regarded as immoral those that did not were matters of personal preference. While some problems would obviously remain, e.g. how does one separate morality from prudence (To which I would respond that cultural prudence may lie at the evolutionary root of morality.) These problems would have far less adverse impact on human beings and their societies.
Considerations of this sort may have to be pursued if we are to minimize the enormities that passionate ignorance has and will increasingly inflict on society. It must become a maxim of society that faith is not knowledge and belief is not reason if we are ever to live in concert with the planet, the two edged sword that science has given us and the common plight we all share.
Bob Newhard
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Financial Tsunamis
In the last few days I have read a few articles on the effect of the global financial crisis on Japan. The owners of much of the world’s liquid wealth, having withdrawn their funds from U. S. and European financial markets to cut their losses, have decided that the Japanese yen is the safest major currency in which to place their money. This has created a monumental problem for the Japanese because it has rapidly increased the value of the yen by about 12%. This has commensurately increased the price for Japanese products. For a nation as dependent upon exports as Japan, this is a real blow to their economy. Thus because of the crash of the American economy and in consequence a debased dollar the Japanese are faced with selling expensive products that the world cannot buy. What does this tell us about an economic tsunami that can slosh back and forth across the world’s societies with no control?
The first thing it says, I believe, is that the world needs some mechanism by which, for starters, the size of the tsunami can be reduced. Capitalism has always had the boom and bust cycle so we know that this will happen again and again and in the globally integrated economy we now have it will have repeated disastrous consequences. To reduce the magnitude of the tsunami waves we need to reduce the over speculation that produces them. This speculation goes on globally 24 hours a day every day in the foreign exchange market, i.e. making money by exploiting the constantly changing relative values of the different national currencies. To quote from the Global Policy Forum,
“The foreign exchange market is the largest market in the world, with an estimated $1.9 trillion currency traded per day (2004). This means that in less than one year, currency worth 10 times the global GDP is traded. Of this massive amount, international trade in goods and services, which requires foreign exchange, accounts for only a small percentage ($9 trillion per year) of the total trading.”
That such a massive amount of money is in motion around the globe and not focused on any human need creates, in my view, a wild beast capable of great harm at any time and any place. It also indicates that the resources exist to deal with humanity’s oppressing needs. Controlling this beast that can devastate a nation’s or a region’s (Southeast Asia in 1997) or the global economy should be of the highest priority for the world’s leaders and especially that of the United States. A good device for doing this, as I have mentioned previously, is the Tobin Tax on global financial transactions.
James Tobin and others have proposed tax rates ranging from 0.005 to 0.25 percent that would generate between $15 and $300 billion per year for the benefit of the poor areas of the planet or addressing the social problems at the root of conflict. A UN study has estimated that about $150 billion per year is needed to meet the Millennium Development Goals, including halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty and hunger by 2015, ensuring primary schooling for all children, and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS, malaria and other major diseases.
To my mind, this tax verges on a no brainer. We negotiated the GATT, NAFTA, etc. for the benefit of the corporations. It is high time we did the same for the benefit of humanity. We ordinary people have long lived with transaction taxes such as the sales tax. It is also high time that the wealthy of this planet pay a transaction tax as they move their wealth around the world manipulating money to make even more money. We badly need to bring this money market into some conformity with the world’s real economy. The wealthy and the Far Right will and are fighting it, usually as that hated economic practice called socialism, which has been made a bogeyman in the campaign against Obama. Which brings me to my final point (at last?). Several countries, e.g. France and Belgium, have already adopted the Tobin Tax conditional upon other major economic powers adopting it also. If the G8 plus India, China and Brazil could be persuaded to use this tax to mitigate the massively destructive over speculation of the global capitalist system’s impact on their own economies, the benefits to world economic stability would be substantial. By using the tax proceeds to progressively enhance the lives of the world’s poor, humanity just might find its way through the chaos of global warming and overpopulation.
Bob Newhard
The first thing it says, I believe, is that the world needs some mechanism by which, for starters, the size of the tsunami can be reduced. Capitalism has always had the boom and bust cycle so we know that this will happen again and again and in the globally integrated economy we now have it will have repeated disastrous consequences. To reduce the magnitude of the tsunami waves we need to reduce the over speculation that produces them. This speculation goes on globally 24 hours a day every day in the foreign exchange market, i.e. making money by exploiting the constantly changing relative values of the different national currencies. To quote from the Global Policy Forum,
“The foreign exchange market is the largest market in the world, with an estimated $1.9 trillion currency traded per day (2004). This means that in less than one year, currency worth 10 times the global GDP is traded. Of this massive amount, international trade in goods and services, which requires foreign exchange, accounts for only a small percentage ($9 trillion per year) of the total trading.”
That such a massive amount of money is in motion around the globe and not focused on any human need creates, in my view, a wild beast capable of great harm at any time and any place. It also indicates that the resources exist to deal with humanity’s oppressing needs. Controlling this beast that can devastate a nation’s or a region’s (Southeast Asia in 1997) or the global economy should be of the highest priority for the world’s leaders and especially that of the United States. A good device for doing this, as I have mentioned previously, is the Tobin Tax on global financial transactions.
James Tobin and others have proposed tax rates ranging from 0.005 to 0.25 percent that would generate between $15 and $300 billion per year for the benefit of the poor areas of the planet or addressing the social problems at the root of conflict. A UN study has estimated that about $150 billion per year is needed to meet the Millennium Development Goals, including halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty and hunger by 2015, ensuring primary schooling for all children, and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS, malaria and other major diseases.
To my mind, this tax verges on a no brainer. We negotiated the GATT, NAFTA, etc. for the benefit of the corporations. It is high time we did the same for the benefit of humanity. We ordinary people have long lived with transaction taxes such as the sales tax. It is also high time that the wealthy of this planet pay a transaction tax as they move their wealth around the world manipulating money to make even more money. We badly need to bring this money market into some conformity with the world’s real economy. The wealthy and the Far Right will and are fighting it, usually as that hated economic practice called socialism, which has been made a bogeyman in the campaign against Obama. Which brings me to my final point (at last?). Several countries, e.g. France and Belgium, have already adopted the Tobin Tax conditional upon other major economic powers adopting it also. If the G8 plus India, China and Brazil could be persuaded to use this tax to mitigate the massively destructive over speculation of the global capitalist system’s impact on their own economies, the benefits to world economic stability would be substantial. By using the tax proceeds to progressively enhance the lives of the world’s poor, humanity just might find its way through the chaos of global warming and overpopulation.
Bob Newhard
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